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3 . 2022



Introduction. The medical industry is experiencing a serious need for highly qualified medical personnel. The dropout of students has a negative effect associated with both financial costs for the education of students who have not completed their studies, and losses for society in need of specialists.

Aim – the study of academic predictors of dropout of medical students.

Material and methods. The sample size was about 11075 people of the federal state budgetary educational institution of higher education Orenburg State Medical University (OrSMU) for 2009–2020.

We developed an accounting document «Map of the study of predictors of obtaining medical education», which contained data on students, as well as on the results of academic performance in the learning process.

In order to analyze the predictors of student dropout during training we used Cox’s proportional hazards model. Variables that had only one unique value (no variance of values) were excluded from the «survival analysis» as well as those variables that completely determined the outcome for the group (for example, a variable that was present only in students who dropped out).

The critical level for statistical tests is 0.05.

We were indicating the p-level of significance and the risk ratio for this category of students for cases when the risk factor have a statistically significant contribution to the prediction of survival.

Results. The most significant dependent variables are: student education on a budgetary basis (hazard ratio 0.72), full-time education (hazard ratio 2.24), good knowledge of a foreign language (hazard ratio 1.55), training according to an individual curriculum (hazard ratio 1.2), training in the target area (risk ratio 1.67).

Conclusion. The risk of expulsion for students of the targeted admission is lower than for students studying at their own expense.

Keywords:student dropout; predictors; academic performance; learning; survival analysis

Funding. The study had no sponsor support.

Conflict of interest. The authors declare no conflict of interest.

For citation: Mescheryakov A.O., Bayanova N.A., Kalinina E.A., Denisov V.A. Medical students dropout predictors. Meditsinskoe obrazovanie i professional’noe razvitie [Medical Education and Professional Development]. 2022; 13 (3): 125–36. DOI: (in Russian)


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Balkizov Zalim Zamirovich
Professor of the Department of Professional Education and Educational Technologies, Associate Professor of the Department of Hospital Surgery of the N.I. Pirogov Russian National Research Medical University of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, member of the Coordinating Council for Personnel Policy of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Adviser to the President of the National Medical Chamber, Executive Secretary of the Commission for Accreditation of Continuing Medical Education Events in the National Medical Chamber, Secretary General of the Russian Society of Medical Specialists General Representative of the Association for Medical Education in Europe, General Director of GEOTAR-Med
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